Does your 2027 business plan still assume that a new Buyer wants the same help as a Buyer from five years ago, or that a past client has a reason to move this year? A Seller may consider a move if it would put family closer. They are also wondering what the next home would cost, and whether the sale is worth the disruption.
Quick Answer
A 2027 real estate plan based on the 2026 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers is a plan that turns national facts about what Buyers and Sellers expect from agents into local client questions, CRM segments, service standards, and weekly actions. The data offers clues. Your own database tells you where to act.
The National Association of REALTORS® 2026 profile summary reports a 22% share of first-time Buyers, a median first-time Buyer age of 40, a median repeat Buyer age of 62, and a 12-year median home tenure among Sellers. Those are U.S. national figures. They are not a forecast for your city, and they do not describe Canada's market. Use them to test your assumptions, then compare them with your local data.
The separate NAR 2026 report release adds detail on cash, down payments, Seller motives, and agent use. Its survey covers U.S. primary residence purchases from July 2025 through June 2026; it excludes investors and vacation homes. That scope matters. Do not use a national share as your local lead goal or treat a past sale as proof that the same client type will buy in 2027.
U.S. national profile figures. Use local data and CRM records for your own 2027 targets.
First-time Buyers need a longer, clearer path
NAR reports that first-time Buyers made up 22% of Buyers, up from 21% a year earlier. Their median age stayed at 40. The NAR release on Buyer funds says 10% of first-time Buyers paid cash, while the median down payment for that group was 9%. Among first-time Buyers who used a down payment, 62% used personal savings, 25% used a gift or loan from family or friends, and 10% used an inheritance. These source categories can overlap; they are not parts of one total.
Different funding paths need different conversations
That is not one uniform client group.
A Buyer with savings may need a longer cost plan.
A Buyer with family help may need an early lender consult and clear documentation.
A cash Buyer still needs a purchase limit and a property test.
Many face a hard search for a home that fits both budget and life.
The 2026 NAR Profile, Chapter 4 shows how little time an agent may have to earn trust. Among first-time Buyers, 52% found their agent through a referral and 67% interviewed only one agent. Across all Buyers, 75% interviewed only one. A warm introduction may get you the consult; it does not show the Buyer how your service works. Open with questions that help you understand the Buyer's biggest reason for wanting to move: home criteria, cost limit, finance path, and what the agent will do before an offer. Then send a written recap with an owner and next date.
The same chapter reports that 51% of Buyers most wanted help to find the right home. Among first-time Buyers, 78% said their agent helped them understand the purchase process. Across all Buyers, 55% valued an agent who identified property features or faults they had not noticed. At each tour, name one trade-off, one cost or condition to verify, and one decision that follows. Ask the Buyer which channel works best; 74% of Buyers valued texts for property facts and contact, while 73% valued personal calls. Set a contact standard and keep it after the first week.
Six-month horizon
For a Buyer six months from a purchase, set a monthly market check and a clear date to revisit the budget.
Funds in place
For a Buyer with funds in place, set a same-week consult, lender or cash proof step, and property criteria review.
Questions to ask at the Buyer consultation
At the consult, ask:
- What price range has a lender or advisor confirmed?
- What monthly cost feels safe?
- Which funds are available now, and which depend on another person or asset?
- Which three home traits matter most?
- What trade-off can you accept?
Record the answers. A search alert without those facts is activity, not service.
Set a clear next step for each path. The Buyer with a six-month horizon gets a date for a budget review. The Buyer with funds in place gets a property shortlist and a consult on offer terms. The Buyer with family help gets a lender conversation before a home tour. Review the file after 30 days. If the client has no next date, the path has broken. Chapter 4 also finds that 88% of Buyers said they would use their agent again or recommend that agent, while 62% had recommended the agent after a purchase in the prior year. Future intent and actual referrals are different measures. Record both the service you promised and whether the client gave a referral after the close.
Repeat Buyers and long-term owners need a reason to move
The median repeat Buyer in NAR's report was 62. Sellers had owned their home for a median of 12 years. NAR also found that 46% of Buyers chose a neighborhood for access to friends and family, while 31% chose one for access to work. Fourteen percent bought a home for more than one generation. NAR says the top Seller reason was a move closer to friends and family, at 22%.
The cost of a new loan can also affect the decision. A Federal Reserve study of mortgage rate lock-in found that a wider gap between an owner's current mortgage rate and a new market rate reduced moves in the 2021 to 2022 period it studied. That study does not measure your 2027 market. It gives you one more question for a Seller consult: after the sale, what would the next home cost each month?
The point for your business is not to send every past client a message about age or downsizes. Ask about the life change that could make a move useful: family nearby, space for a parent, a simpler home, or a new cost structure. Some owners have no reason to sell. Respect that answer and set a useful future check-in.
Past-client database audit
Audit your past-client database this week. Find owners with long tenure and no recent conversation. Choose ten people whose circumstances you know well enough to contact with care. Ask what has changed in how they use the home. If a move has merit, prepare two numbers: estimated net proceeds and the cost of the next home. Log the reason, the obstacle, and a next date. Do not label a person a Seller lead just because an anniversary alert appeared.
The 2026 NAR Profile, Chapter 7 gives a sharper test for the Seller consult. Of Sellers, 39% found their agent through a referral and 24% used an agent from a prior sale or purchase; 79% contacted only one agent. Reputation was the most important selection factor for 31%, and honesty or trust for 24%. Ask how the Seller chose whom to call and what proof would make that choice feel sound. Take a local price range, a net sheet, and two recent sale examples. A general promise about exposure is thin evidence.
Sellers also named concrete jobs: 20% most wanted an agent to promote the home to potential Buyers, 20% wanted a competitive price, and 17% wanted a sale within a specific time frame. Most, 87%, said their agent provided broad services and managed most sale tasks. In the Seller consult, show the price review date, photo and launch plan, Buyer feedback schedule, and the point at which you will recommend a change. Give the Seller one contact owner. After the close, log the reason for the move and a useful next contact date. Chapter 7 reports that 86% of Sellers said they would recommend their agent, while 62% had recommended the agent after a sale in the prior year. Check the client experience as well as the sale result.
Agent use is high; your value still needs proof
NAR reports that 90% of Buyers and 92% of Sellers used an agent or broker. Those national use rates show demand for help. They do not tell you which agent a client will choose or whether the client will recall that agent a year later. The Buyer and Seller results above point to a more precise job: earn trust early, make your service visible, then deliver the same standard through the close and after it.
Start with the first consult. A Buyer who arrives through a friend still needs to know how you will test a home, explain trade-offs, and keep the search on course. A Seller who knows your reputation still needs a price rationale, a clear launch plan, and a date for the next decision. Put those steps in a one-page service map. Ask a teammate to explain the map without you. If the explanation changes from person to person, document the standard and use it at the next consult.
Close the gap between intent and referrals
Do not confuse a client's stated intent to recommend with a referral that actually occurred. NAR asks about both, and the results differ. That gap does not prove poor service; it tells you to inspect what happens after the sale. Before the file closes, assign a 30-day call and a six-month check in the CRM. At each contact, ask about the move and any unresolved issue before you ask for a referral. Track which past clients return, which refer, and which receive no contact. A team leader can review five recent files each week and fix missed steps before a new campaign adds more names.
Build the 2027 target from your own conversion math
A national Buyer share does not set your production target. Your own ratios do. Pull 2026 results by lead source and client type: real conversations, consults held, client agreements, and closed sides. If the CRM cannot produce that view, audit a sample of files and mark the absent fields. Do not fill the gap with a guess.
Here is an illustration, not a forecast. Suppose 40 Buyer consults led to 20 client agreements and 16 closed sides. At the same rates, a 2027 target of 24 closed sides would require 60 consults. That is about 1–2 per week. Check the math against seasonality, team capacity, and the lead sources that produced those consults. If the target exceeds your real capacity, change the plan before you set a calendar goal.
2026 example
40 → 20 → 16 Buyer consults → client agreements → closed sides2027 example target
60 → 24 Buyer consults → closed sides, at the same conversion ratesUse actual conversion data and team capacity before committing to a production target.
FAQ
How can agents use NAR's national data without calling it a forecast for their local market?
It describes U.S. Buyers and Sellers in the 2026 profile. Use it to form questions, then compare them with current local data and your own client records before you set a 2027 target.
What belongs in a first-time Buyer consultation, given the report's data on funds and service needs?
Ask about the lender-confirmed price range, safe monthly cost, available funds, top home traits, and the next decision. Then match the contact plan to that Buyer's timeline and available funds.
What do Sellers value from an agent, and how can an agent show it at a Seller consultation?
Start with the Seller's top priority: home promotion, price, or sale date. Show the local price range, a clear promotion plan, a contact schedule, and the date for a price review. Name the person who owns each next step.
What does the one-agent selection pattern mean for the first consult?
NAR reports that 67% of first-time Buyers and 75% of all Buyers interviewed one agent; 79% of Sellers contacted one. The first consult may be the only chance to earn trust. Explain your service steps, communication pace, and next action.
Does stated intent to recommend mean an actual referral will follow?
No. NAR reports future intent and past referrals as separate measures. For Buyers, 88% said they would use their agent again or recommend them; 62% had recommended the agent after a purchase in the prior year. For Sellers, 86% said they would recommend the agent; 62% had recommended after a sale in the prior year. Track each separately and set a post-close contact owner and date.
Can I use the NAR percentages as my 2027 lead targets?
No. These are national U.S. results, not a local forecast or your conversion rate. Set targets from your own consults, agreements, and closed sides. Use the report to decide which client path or service standard to review next.
Turn the report into a 2027 service standard
Bottom Line
If your team quotes market data but cannot say who owns the next client action, put that gap on the agenda this week.
Put It Into Action
Use the Market-to-Action Audit with one Buyer group and one Seller group. Set the consult standard, name the CRM owner, and review the first five files next week. Make the service that earns trust visible before you seek more leads.