180-Day Expired Listing Follow-Up System
Expired Listing Prospecting
At the 2026 Tom Ferry Success Summit, Jimmy Mackin made a much bigger argument than “call expired listings.”
He said the market has entered what he called the Expired Era, driven by longer days on market, rising inventory, affordability pressure, and a widening gap between what sellers expect and what buyers are willing to do.
His opportunity was specific: add 10 listings over the next 12 months, then use those listings as a marketing flywheel to become “five-mile famous” in the local market.
Think in cycles, not seasons
The framework challenged the idea that real estate is mainly seasonal.
His point was that the bigger opportunities come from understanding the market cycle.
When days on market rise, inventory grows, affordability gets harder, and seller expectations lag behind buyer behavior, more listings fail to sell.
That creates a larger expired opportunity.
Instead of treating expireds as a temporary script category, The framework frames them as a structural lead source for the current cycle.
Ten listings can become a local marketing engine
The framework’s math was one of the most memorable parts of the framework.
He described one listing as roughly 50 marketable moments.
Ten listings can then create hundreds of campaigns over the course of a year.
That can include:
- Pre-market content.
- Launch content.
- Open-house promotion.
- Buyer conversations.
- Price-change stories.
- Market updates.
- Seller communication examples.
- Sold case studies.
- Farm mailers.
- Follow-up content for other expired sellers.
The listing becomes more than one transaction.
It becomes a reason for the market to keep seeing your name attached to a specific problem you know how to solve.
Day one is not where most of the opportunity lives
The framework cited data showing that only a small percentage of expired listings relist in the first few days.
That changes the strategy.
Most agents concentrate their effort on the first morning.
Call fast.
Call repeatedly.
Compete with everyone else using similar scripts.
Then disappear.
The framework’s phrase was “time kills loyalty.”
As weeks pass, the seller’s attachment to the previous agent can weaken and the willingness to consider a different plan can grow.
That makes long-term nurturing more important than day-one dialing alone.
Be different by design
The framework rejected generic expired messaging.
“Sorry your home didn’t sell.”
“I have buyers.”
“I can market it better.”
Those messages sound like everyone else.
His alternative was diagnosis, plan, and proof.
Diagnosis
Show that you studied the specific property and market.
Why did the home not sell under the conditions that existed during the listing period?
Plan
Explain what you would change in pricing, presentation, timing, distribution, communication, and negotiation.
Proof
Show credible evidence that you, your team, or your brokerage can execute the plan.
The framework also encouraged agents with limited personal history to use legitimate “we” proof from the team or brokerage rather than exaggerating an individual track record.
Build a home profile before you reach out
The research comes first.
The framework’s Home Profile includes information such as:
- Property facts.
- Ownership information where lawfully available.
- Original price and reductions.
- Days on market.
- Comparable sales during the listing period.
- Competing inventory.
- Current market conditions.
- Likely reasons the listing struggled.
AI can help assemble and organize the research.
The agent still has to interpret the property and the market.
The difference is that the outreach begins with evidence about this home instead of a generic script for all expireds.
The cannonball campaign is multi-channel
The framework’s Cannonball Campaign combines deep property research with several forms of outreach.
The system can include:
- A differentiated mailer explaining the diagnosis and plan.
- A customized property landing page.
- Email outreach after lawful contact research.
- A value-based follow-up cadence.
- Calls or texts where appropriate and compliant.
The purpose is to create a more substantial reason for the seller to pay attention than another voicemail saying you want the listing.
Target the expireds you have a better chance to win
The framework also talked about selection.
Not every expired represents the same opportunity.
He suggested paying attention to who held the original listing and where loyalty may be weaker or service inconsistency may have created a bigger opening.
In his framework, expireds from newer agents or very large teams can sometimes present a different opportunity than listings held by strong mid-level producers or small teams with deep client loyalty.
That adds strategy to the prospecting list.
The goal is not simply more expired names.
It is better targets.
Build the follow-up for 30, 90, and 180 days
The framework’s long-horizon approach is one of the most useful parts of the framework.
Follow-up can continue through multiple phases:
- First six weeks with more frequent value-based contact.
- Continued nurturing through 90 days.
- Longer-term follow-up through 180 days.
The contact needs a reason.
A new comparable sale.
A market change.
A shift in competition.
A new relaunch recommendation.
A relevant case study.
The system stays useful because the seller keeps receiving information tied to the original problem.
Use the same lesson to prevent your own listings from expiring
The framework connected expired prospecting back to seller service.
He described how sellers often behave as if they psychologically committed to a much shorter period than the full listing agreement.
If communication breaks down early, trust can disappear long before the contract ends.
That is why current listings need a proactive communication system.
Weekly updates can include:
- Showings.
- Feedback.
- Competing inventory.
- Pricing position.
- Marketing activity.
- Recommended next action.
If you are going to win expired listings because another process failed, your own listing process needs to prevent the same failure.
Turn every win into proof
The framework encouraged agents to “show the sweat.”
Do not only announce that the previously expired home sold.
Document the problem.
Show what changed.
Explain the work.
Share the outcome.
Then distribute that story back into the farm and expired audience.
That is how one successful relaunch creates credibility for the next conversation.
FAQ
What did the framework mean by the expired era?
He used the term to describe a market cycle with more failed listings because of longer days on market, higher inventory, affordability pressure, and seller-buyer expectation gaps.
Why did the framework recommend long-term follow-up?
He cited the small share of expireds that relist immediately and argued that loyalty to the previous agent can weaken over time, creating more opportunity after the first few days.
What is the cannonball campaign?
It is The framework’s multi-channel expired strategy built around property research, a diagnostic message, a plan of action, a customized page or mailer, and ongoing outreach.
What does “five-mile famous” mean?
It is the idea of using listings and the many marketing moments around them to become repeatedly visible and known within a concentrated local area.
Bottom Line
The core message was not to win the first phone call.
It was to build a larger expired-listing strategy around the current market cycle.
Set the 10-listing target. Research the property. Choose the right targets. Lead with diagnosis, plan, and proof. Use the Cannonball Campaign. Stay in the relationship for 30, 90, and 180 days. Then turn every win into more local proof.
That is how expired prospecting becomes a growth flywheel instead of a day-one sprint.
Put it into action
Choose five expired listings that fit your target profile. Build a Home Profile for each, draft the diagnosis and relaunch plan, and schedule the first 30 days of value-based follow-up before you make the first contact. At the same time, review your current seller communication standard so your own listings do not fail for the same reasons you are prospecting against.
For the complete Success Summit 2026 recap, explore Janet’s 20 Real Estate Lessons From Tom Ferry Success Summit 2026.
Would you like to talk through how this applies to your business? Email Janet hello@janetmiller.coach or send her a DM on Instagram at @janetmiller.coach and tell her what you are working through.